The Dossier — Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2026

EMA 200 Reclaim Dominates with Nearly 18R in a Balanced Week

This week delivered a total of 17.91R across 24 signals, splitting evenly between 12 winners and 12 losers for a 50% win rate. The standout strategy, EMA 200 Reclaim, contributed an impressive 15.14R from 9 trades, powering the overall positive result. With October now at 17.69R over 6 signals, the year remains strong at 519.23R from 2460 signals.

Total R
+17.91R
24 signals
Signals
24
12W · 12L
Win Rate
50%
Top Strategy
EMA 200 Reclaim
Best net R

October month-to-date: +17.69R·2026 YTD: +519.23R(2460 signals)

Trade of the Week
WTI/USD (Crude Oil)SHORT
EMA 200 Reclaim · H1
+13.11R

The top trade was a short on WTI/USD using the EMA 200 Reclaim strategy on the 1-hour timeframe, which ran to +13.11R. This setup capitalizes on price retesting and rejecting the EMA 200, a key dynamic that often signals strong directional moves. The quick execution and clear trend confirmation made this trade a textbook example of the strategy's edge.

The Ledger — every signal, on the record

Every setup we called this week — entry, stop, target, and how it closed. Winners and losers, no cherry-picking. (✓ hit target · ✗ stopped out)

InstrumentDirSetupEntryStopTargetExitR
AUD/NZDLONGMean Reversion · M151.239021.23721.241991.2372-1.00R✗
GBP/JPYLONGWeekend Gap Fill · M15208.092207.851208.327208.327+0.98R✓
AUD/NZDLONGWeekend Gap Fill · M151.239321.237851.239991.23999+0.46R✓
GBP/USDLONGWeekend Gap Fill · M151.32331.322211.324551.32455+1.15R✓
AUD/USDLONGWeekend Gap Fill · M150.70110.699920.702440.70244+1.14R✓
EUR/JPYLONGWeekend Gap Fill · M15178.966178.742179.158179.158+0.86R✓
EUR/USDLONGWeekend Gap Fill · M151.138021.136871.139111.13911+0.95R✓
US500 (S&P 500)SHORTEMA 200 Reclaim · M157,7247,729.87,705.47,705.4+3.21R✓
NZD/USDLONGEMA 200 Reclaim · M150.566880.566360.568760.56636-1.00R✗
GBP/USDLONGEMA 200 Reclaim · M151.325331.324641.328041.32464-1.00R✗
WTI/USD (Crude Oil)SHORTEMA 200 Reclaim · M1596.50896.97294.89296.972-1.00R✗
USD/CHFLONGBreakout · H10.832910.832150.836440.83215-1.00R✗
EUR/JPYSHORTAsian Range Breakout · M15178.594178.696178.22178.696-1.00R✗
USD/JPYSHORTEMA 200 Reclaim · H4157.368157.624156.508157.624-1.00R✗
GBP/USDSHORTAsian Range Breakout · M151.322641.323261.320651.32326-1.00R✗
USD/JPYLONGMean Reversion · M15157.001156.80633157.30667156.80633-1.00R✗
AUD/NZDLONGMean Reversion · M151.234581.23241.238541.2324-1.00R✗
USD/JPYLONGMean Reversion · M15157.008156.80633157.30667157.30667+1.48R✓
AUD/NZDSHORTEMA 200 Reclaim · H11.23761.23881.231861.2388-1.00R✗
WTI/USD (Crude Oil)SHORTEMA 200 Reclaim · H195.4296.27891.28591.285+4.82R✓
US30 (Dow)LONGIndex Snapback · D50,997.849,253.0172251,388.4651,388.46+0.22R✓
AUD/USDLONGMean Reversion · M150.693110.691310.695870.69587+1.53R✓
US500 (S&P 500)SHORTEMA 200 Reclaim · M157,684.47,689.47,6467,689.4-1.00R✗
WTI/USD (Crude Oil)SHORTEMA 200 Reclaim · H195.46795.78691.28591.285+13.11R✓
Net · 12W / 12L · 50% win+17.91R
Strategy Spotlight

EMA 200 Reclaim stood out with 15.14R across 9 trades, highlighting its reliability. This strategy works by identifying when price tests and reclaims the significant EMA 200 level, often triggering sustained momentum moves. Its strong net R shows how disciplined entries around this key moving average can yield consistent results.

EMA 200 Reclaim+15.14R9
Weekend Gap Fill+5.54R6
Index Snapback+0.22R1
Mean Reversion+0.01R5
Breakout-1.00R1
Asian Range Breakout-2.00R2
On the Watchlist Next Week
EUR/USDLong bias — ECB signaled continued hawkish stance while US data shows signs of slowing growth, supporting EUR strength and clean breakout potential.
USD/CADShort bias — Oil prices have surged, benefiting CAD; coupled with Bank of Canada hawkishness versus Fed pause, USD/CAD poised for downward continuation.
1 more setups on this week's watchlist.Unlock the full watchlist

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Breakout Alerts provides educational market alerts only and does not provide investment advice. R values reflect alert-tracking outcomes (entry to exit relative to initial risk), not actual trading returns. Trading involves risk.