Breakouts Lead a Strong Week with a 5.69R Edge
This week closed with a net 5.69R over 25 signals, despite a 36% win rate. Breakout trades delivered the biggest edge, adding 5.27R across just three signals. September is off to a solid start with 5.46R in 20 signals, contributing to a 479.33R year-to-date total over 2371 trades.
September month-to-date: +5.46R·2026 YTD: +479.33R(2371 signals)
The standout trade was a long breakout on USD/JPY on the 15-minute timeframe, which ran to +7.27R. Breakouts aim to capture strong directional moves following a clear price squeeze or consolidation, and this trade showed the power of quick, decisive entries when momentum confirms the setup.
Every setup we called this week — entry, stop, target, and how it closed. Winners and losers, no cherry-picking. (✓ hit target · ✗ stopped out)
| Instrument | Dir | Setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Exit | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | SHORT | Weekend Gap Fill · M15 | 0.59228 | 0.59356 | 0.59134 | 0.59134 | +0.73R✓ |
| EUR/JPY | LONG | Mean Reversion · M15 | 185.219 | 185.08567 | 185.58333 | 185.08567 | -1.00R✗ |
| EUR/JPY | LONG | Mean Reversion · M15 | 185.228 | 185.08567 | 185.58333 | 185.58333 | +2.50R✓ |
| USD/JPY | LONG | Breakout · M15 | 159.881 | 159.82 | 160.38 | 159.82 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/CAD | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 1.38832 | 1.38773 | 1.3902 | 1.38773 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Mean Reversion · M15 | 216.354 | 216.199 | 216.675 | 216.675 | +2.07R✓ |
| USD/JPY | LONG | Breakout · M15 | 159.807 | 159.77 | 160.076 | 160.076 | +7.27R✓ |
| GBP/USD | SHORT | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 1.35346 | 1.35384 | 1.3514 | 1.35384 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 159.985 | 159.943 | 160.292 | 159.943 | -1.00R✗ |
| EUR/USD | SHORT | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 1.15978 | 1.16033 | 1.1579 | 1.16033 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 216.675 | 216.615 | 216.936 | 216.615 | -1.00R✗ |
| EUR/USD | LONG | Mean Reversion · M15 | 1.15768 | 1.15632 | 1.15985 | 1.15985 | +1.60R✓ |
| GBP/USD | LONG | Mean Reversion · M15 | 1.3499 | 1.34815 | 1.35252 | 1.34815 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/CHF | SHORT | Mean Reversion · M15 | 0.81327 | 0.81478 | 0.81088 | 0.81478 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Pivot Extreme Fade · H4 | 215.815 | 215.11692 | 217.21116 | 215.11692 | -1.00R✗ |
| EUR/JPY | LONG | Pivot Extreme Fade · H4 | 185.005 | 184.43617 | 186.14265 | 184.43617 | -1.00R✗ |
| NZD/USD | LONG | Pivot Extreme Fade · M15 | 0.58078 | 0.57992 | 0.5825 | 0.5825 | +2.00R✓ |
| NZD/USD | LONG | Pivot Extreme Fade · H1 | 0.58182 | 0.5797 | 0.58605 | 0.58605 | +2.00R✓ |
| NZD/USD | LONG | Pivot Extreme Fade · H4 | 0.58212 | 0.57936 | 0.58763 | 0.58763 | +2.00R✓ |
| EUR/USD | SHORT | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 1.15905 | 1.15979 | 1.1567 | 1.15979 | -1.00R✗ |
| US30 (Dow) | SHORT | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 52,973.8 | 53,039.2003 | 52,661.2 | 53,039.2003 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/CHF | SHORT | Mean Reversion · M15 | 0.81323 | 0.81478 | 0.81088 | 0.81088 | +1.52R✓ |
| AUD/USD | LONG | Breakout · H1 | 0.72052 | 0.71974 | 0.72338 | 0.71974 | -1.00R✗ |
| US30 (Dow) | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · H1 | 53,355 | 53,272.9997 | 53,758.4 | 53,272.9997 | -1.00R✗ |
| US30 (Dow) | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 53,417 | 53,405.9997 | 53,663 | 53,405.9997 | -1.00R✗ |
| Net · 9W / 16L · 36% win | +5.69R | ||||||
Breakout strategies shone this week, producing the highest net R despite fewer signals. They work well by targeting volatility expansions and capturing early trends, which can yield large moves in a short timeframe, as demonstrated by the top trade.