Red week with steep losses despite a strong Asian Range Breakout trade
This week saw a tough stretch with a net result of -7.81 R from 28 signals, hitting a win rate of only 14%. The breakout strategy was the main drag, losing 9 R across 9 trades, while Asian Range Breakout added a positive 0.85 R but was outweighed by many losers. July to date sits at -7.05 R from 107 signals, though the year remains well ahead at +424.44 R over 2169 signals.
July month-to-date: -7.05R·2026 YTD: +424.44R(2169 signals)
The trade of the week was a short EUR/USD on the M15 timeframe using the Asian Range Breakout strategy, which ran to +5.05 R. This setup aims to catch swift moves following consolidation in Asian session ranges, and this instance captured a strong directional move, making it a clear positive outlier in an otherwise difficult week.
Every setup we called this week — entry, stop, target, and how it closed. Winners and losers, no cherry-picking. (✓ hit target · ✗ stopped out)
| Instrument | Dir | Setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Exit | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | SHORT | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 1.34592 | 1.34665 | 1.34389 | 1.34665 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/USD | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 1.34705 | 1.34658 | 1.34915 | 1.34658 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 218.76 | 218.656 | 219.02 | 218.656 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Breakout · H1 | 218.214 | 217.994 | 219.839 | 217.994 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/USD | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · H1 | 1.34314 | 1.34096 | 1.34814 | 1.34096 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 218.681 | 218.626 | 219.097 | 218.626 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/USD | SHORT | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 1.34249 | 1.34302 | 1.34044 | 1.34302 | -1.00R✗ |
| NZD/USD | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 0.58504 | 0.58463 | 0.5867 | 0.58463 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Breakout · H1 | 218.214 | 217.994 | 219.839 | 217.994 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/USD | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · H4 | 1.33852 | 1.33709 | 1.35582 | 1.33709 | -1.00R✗ |
| EUR/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 186.186 | 186.126 | 186.328 | 186.126 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/USD | SHORT | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 1.33691 | 1.33724 | 1.33508 | 1.33724 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · H1 | 217.987 | 217.867 | 218.515 | 218.515 | +4.40R✓ |
| EUR/USD | SHORT | Breakout · M15 | 1.14074 | 1.14141 | 1.13934 | 1.14141 | -1.00R✗ |
| AUD/USD | SHORT | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 0.6997 | 0.70032 | 0.69802 | 0.70032 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Breakout · H1 | 218.192 | 217.972 | 219.839 | 217.972 | -1.00R✗ |
| EUR/USD | SHORT | Breakout · M15 | 1.14074 | 1.1415 | 1.13934 | 1.1415 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/CHF | LONG | Breakout · H1 | 0.81412 | 0.81523 | 0.81987 | 0.81523 | -1.00R✗ |
| EUR/JPY | LONG | Breakout · H1 | 186.434 | 186.254 | 186.984 | 186.254 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/USD | SHORT | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 1.33726 | 1.33761 | 1.33558 | 1.33558 | +4.80R✓ |
| AUD/USD | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 0.70037 | 0.69956 | 0.70213 | 0.69956 | -1.00R✗ |
| EUR/USD | SHORT | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 1.14092 | 1.14134 | 1.1388 | 1.1388 | +5.05R✓ |
| EUR/JPY | LONG | Breakout · H1 | 186.456 | 186.276 | 186.984 | 186.276 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · H1 | 218.466 | 218.386 | 218.688 | 218.386 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Breakout · H1 | 218.202 | 217.982 | 219.839 | 217.982 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 218.333 | 218.292 | 218.612 | 218.292 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · H1 | 218.395 | 218.292 | 218.612 | 218.292 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/USD | SHORT | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 1.33401 | 1.33521 | 1.33168 | 1.33168 | +1.94R✓ |
| Net · 4W / 24L · 14% win | -7.81R | ||||||
The Asian Range Breakout strategy stood out as the best performer this week, contributing +0.85 R over 11 trades. This strategy typically works by identifying price compression in the Asian session and trading the breakout, capitalizing on predictable momentum shifts after low volatility periods.
The overall results were weighed down by the breakout strategy, which lost 9 R on 9 trades. This underlines the importance of discipline and selective entries, especially when a strategy’s edge is not manifesting as expected.