Tough week with heavy losses despite a standout EMA 200 Reclaim trade
The week ended with a -11.42 R result from 23 signals, hitting only a 13% win rate. Most strategies struggled, with Asian Range Breakout costing -9 R over 9 trades. August now sits at -11.01 R through 44 signals, though 2026 remains solidly ahead at +422.97 R across 2280 signals.
August month-to-date: -11.01R·2026 YTD: +422.97R(2280 signals)
The trade of the week was a long EMA 200 Reclaim setup on US500 (S&P 500) in the M15 timeframe that added +4.05 R. This strategy looks for price reclaiming the 200 EMA as a sign of renewed bullish momentum, and this example demonstrated the edge well despite the broader tough week.
Every setup we called this week — entry, stop, target, and how it closed. Winners and losers, no cherry-picking. (✓ hit target · ✗ stopped out)
| Instrument | Dir | Setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Exit | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 183.128 | 183.064 | 183.726 | 183.064 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · H1 | 158.486 | 158.424 | 159.048 | 158.424 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 158.49 | 158.424 | 159.048 | 158.424 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/USD | LONG | Breakout · H1 | 1.35258 | 1.3516 | 1.35555 | 1.3516 | -1.00R✗ |
| EUR/USD | SHORT | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 1.15328 | 1.1536 | 1.15192 | 1.1536 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 159.317 | 159.272 | 159.663 | 159.272 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · H1 | 159.364 | 159.272 | 159.663 | 159.272 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · H1 | 215.201 | 215.158 | 215.563 | 215.158 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 215.201 | 215.158 | 215.563 | 215.158 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/CHF | LONG | Breakout · H1 | 0.81276 | 0.81222 | 0.81647 | 0.81222 | -1.00R✗ |
| US500 (S&P 500) | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 7,750.9 | 7,744.5997 | 7,776.4 | 7,776.4 | +4.05R✓ |
| GBP/USD | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 1.35098 | 1.35008 | 1.3546 | 1.35008 | -1.00R✗ |
| AUD/USD | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 0.70634 | 0.70582 | 0.70912 | 0.70582 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/JPY | LONG | Liquidity Sweep · M15 | 215.06 | 214.97 | 215.45167 | 214.97 | -1.00R✗ |
| EUR/USD | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · H1 | 1.1526 | 1.15168 | 1.15634 | 1.15168 | -1.00R✗ |
| GBP/USD | SHORT | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 1.34971 | 1.35017 | 1.34743 | 1.35017 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/JPY | LONG | Liquidity Sweep · M15 | 159.207 | 159.122 | 159.73 | 159.122 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/CHF | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 0.81227 | 0.81117 | 0.81416 | 0.81416 | +1.72R✓ |
| XAG/USD (Silver) | SHORT | EMA 200 Reclaim · M15 | 65.1335 | 65.4584 | 64.2215 | 64.2215 | +2.81R✓ |
| USD/CHF | LONG | Breakout · M15 | 0.81227 | 0.81175 | 0.81483 | 0.81175 | -1.00R✗ |
| WTI/USD (Crude Oil) | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · H1 | 81.522 | 81.129 | 83.618 | 81.129 | -1.00R✗ |
| WTI/USD (Crude Oil) | LONG | EMA 200 Reclaim · H1 | 81.58 | 81.06 | 83.505 | 81.06 | -1.00R✗ |
| USD/JPY | SHORT | Asian Range Breakout · M15 | 159.128 | 159.188 | 158.83 | 159.188 | -1.00R✗ |
| Net · 3W / 20L · 13% win | -11.42R | ||||||
EMA 200 Reclaim was the best-performing strategy this week, netting +2.58 R across 9 trades. This approach tends to work because reclaiming a major moving average often signals a shift in trend or buyer control, giving a clearer directional bias compared to more volatile setups.
Most strategies underperformed, especially Asian Range Breakout and Breakout, which dragged heavily on results. This week is a reminder that discipline and patience are vital when the edge isn’t firing consistently.